THE CHAPMAN REPORT – Technical Commentary for March 21st.

This week…

• The nuclear crisis in Japan continued as the search for bodies also continues. Japan is a long way from rebuilding. First they have to get the nuclear problem under control. The crisis in Japan is negative for Canada’s nuclear industry but positive for Canada’s energy sector, commodity sector and lumber.

• A US/Britain/France led attack on Libya got underway over the weekend. Libya holds Africa’s largest reserves of oil some 50 billion barrels. Meanwhile unrest continues in Bahrain and Yemen where government forces are also killing civilians and foreign troops (Saudi) have moved into Bahrain. Oil prices had fallen on the perception that Japan’s crisis could cause a global slowdown and that they would import less oil. But the ongoing unrest in the Bahrain and Yemen together with the attack on Libya has raised oil fears once again.

• The S&P 500 fell this past week against the backdrop of the nuclear disaster in Japan and the attack on Libya. Support at 1280 broke but support at 1260 held.

• Bond prices rose as there was another flight to safety following the imposition of the no-fly zone against Libya.

• Gold prices gyrated and bounced back but not enough to stop a small decline on the week. Gold prices were once again being seen as a safe haven against the backdrop of the Japanese disaster, the attack on Libya and gyrating currencies. The G7 central banks intervened to push down the soaring Japanese Yen.

• Oil prices fell then rose as the calls for the attack on Libya grew. Still they look mixed and may be just in a consolidation mode following the breakaway gap that took prices to US$105.

• The TSX benefited and was the only index up on the week as energy and metals did well.

D.C.