Not the beginning of a new bull market.

S&P 500

Short term trend – up.
Intermediate trend – down.
Week – up

The S&P 500 has run into a major band of resistance from 850 to 860. A close over 860 this week will confirm to us that we will be heading to 900 and keep our longer term targets near 1000/1100 intact. This is though a sucker rally and not the beginning of a new bull market. What we don’t know from our Technical Scoop April 9 Sucker Rally! is whether it is just a big sucker (which it already is) or will it turn into a really big … [ read more... ]

US$ Bonds

Short term trend – down.
Intermediate trend – has turned neutral.
Week – down.

Bonds cannot seem to get anything going. The ten year bond yield rose to 2.96% from 2.91%. Two year notes were steady at .96%. Still despite the down move bonds remain in a consolidation pattern that has major support just below where we closed at 125^00. A break under that level would be a breakdown in what appears as a consolidation symmetrical triangle. Only a breakout above … [ read more... ]

Cdn$ Bonds

Short term trend – down
Intermediate trend – up
Week – down

Canadian bonds continue to trade in what appears as a huge topping pattern. Right now we are resting near support of 125 and a break of 124.50 would confirm a major breakdown with possible targets down to at least 121. There appears to be a large head & shoulders pattern forming. Only breaking above 127 would send this market to potentially new highs or at least a further test of the highs and a …. [ read more... ]

Gold and Silver

Short term trend – down for both
Intermediate trend – neutral for both
Week – down for both.

Gold and silver continue their near term correction. We moved down sharply earlier in the week but found support at around $865 which was equivalent to the late January topside. A break below will est further support at $850 but under $850 a move to $800 would be in the works and it would turn the intermediate trend… [ read more... ]

Gold Stocks (HUI, TSX Gold Index)

Short term trend – HUI down (barely), TSX Gold down.
Intermediate trend – HUI neutral, TSX Gold up
Week – down

Gold stocks turned down this week but the HUI remains above key weekly support at 255/265 and the TSX Gold Index is also above key weekly support near 275/285. Resistance now for the HUI is at 310 and also for the TSX Gold index at 310. Regaining these levels would be positive. The HUI above 330 would turn very positive again as would the TSX Gold index … [ read more... ]

US$ Index

Short term trend – down
Intermediate trend – up
Week – up

The US$ index reversed back up this past week keeping us in a guessing mode as to which direction we are going in. The past three weeks has seen up, down, up. We haven’t ruled out the possibility of a triple rising top. We have seen that pattern numerous times before so it can’t be ruled out. Major support is at 83 and resistance is at … [ read more... ]

Oil and Gas

Short term trend – up oil, NG down
Intermediate trend – neutral oil, NG down
Week – oil up, NG down

Oil prices continued their recent rebound but NG prices can’t get going for the life of them. Indeed NG prices made new lows and the down trend remains as intact as ever. The only good news is that the weekly MACD has actually turned up and this positive belies the continuing downtrend. Next support for NG is at $3.50. NG prices are at the lowest … [ read more... ]

Oil and Gas stocks (XOI and TSX Energy Index)

Short term trend – up
Intermediate trend – XOI down, TSX Energy Index neutral
Week – XOI down, TSX Energy Index up.

The XOI and the TSX Energy Index both went in opposite directions this past week. The XOI is just below resistance at 900 and must break above 1000 to project up to 1200/1300. The TSX Energy Index broke and closed above 230 resistance this past week and appears headed higher. Targets could be up to between 300 and 350. Indicators are pointed … [ read more... ]