The S&P 500 broke to new lows this past week. Possible targets are down to 600/650 by April. If o we suspect an irregular decline with considerable choppiness. There are lots of potential positive divergences forming in the indices the most notable being the VIX indicator which is nowhere near its October/November highs. With all of the negative announcements including the AIG further bailout news the market does not appear to be in any mood to rebound. The 1938-1939 vey negative cycle appears to be kicking in which means now that being long is difficult but the biggest damage will continue to come in the banks, the consumer discretionary groups, industrials, real estate and others from the broader economy. But once we get to … [ read more ]
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