Investment Advisor, Stockbroker, Financial Technical Analyst

THE CHAPMAN REPORT – Stronger than expected job numbers

kel — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 05:18:53 +0000

This week

Stronger than expected job numbers buoyed the stock market as the S&P 500 jumped 3.1% and is approaching the January highs at 1,150. Targets are now 1,200 to 1,300 once the market makes new highs.

The stronger than expected job numbers were good for stocks but bad for bonds as bonds once again failed at the 40 week MA and have turned down bearishly once again. Once again supply may weigh on the market with another $74 billion of notes and bonds to be auctioned.

Gold is approaching its recent highs at $1,150 but the US$ must fall if the market is challenge the highs near $1,225. The US$ hesitated once again but the patterns show that the break could go either way. An up move in the US$ would be negative for gold. However, gold, silver and the gold stocks are all threatening to break out and if the US$ were to rise than not only would gold and the gold stocks fall but stocks in general would decline. As noted above stocks appear to be pointed higher.

Oil prices rose but natural gas once again fell. For the energy stocks it is oil rising that is the important one and stocks had a good up week.

kel — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 20:05:56 +0000

Today

Update. The TSX Gold Index has given a buy signal. As a result two positions for the gold portfolio are reviewed. One is an old pick and the other new.

kel — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 21:11:23 +0000

This week

Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday following release of weak economic numbers but then spent the rest of the week with a feeble recovery. Key is break back above 1,120 to keep alive the potential for a positive March and a run to 1,200 or higher.

Weak economic numbers and Greece’s problems pushed bond yields sharply lower as the record $126 billion of 2, 5 and 7 year notes went well. But bonds ran into key resistance zones again so follow through is important this week or a failure is possible.

Gold (and gold stocks) staged a sharp outside day reversal on Thursday. This was encouraging as they may have finished a test of the recent lows (that held). Key is regaining above $1,150 and for the HUI above 420. Stocks continue very undervalued in relation to gold.

The US$ continues to falter but has not as yet broken down. If focus shifts from the Euro problems to the problems of the US states (and municipalities) the perception of the US$ as a safe haven of late will evaporate quickly.

Oil prices rose but faltered later in the week on the weak economic numbers. Natural gas prices were weak all week.

kel — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 20:52:43 +0000

Today

Update only. The environment over the past month has been difficult with a down market. The market has also been quite choppy with low volume trading. The portfolios have cash on the sidelines ready to deploy if an opportunity is determined.

kel — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 14:35:24 +0000

This week

The Fed hikes the discount rate but the key Fed funds rate remains unchanged. Stocks rally.

Stock cycles still pointed up into March/April but must overcome resistance above.

Bonds fell for the second consecutive week on the Fed discount rate hike. A potential head and shoulders topping pattern looms on the market. Key neckline levels are just below.

Gold is rising again and was up despite the Fed discount rate hike and more IMF gold sales. Positive reactions to negative news is positive going forward. Stocks remain very undervalued in relation to the price of gold.

Energy prices also rose on the week but remain caught in their box formations of the past few months.