This week

• Stocks continue their recent rise hitting new highs and creeping closer to targets at 1200 S&P 500. But late March and up to Mid April has a confluence of highs seen in bear years. So the next few weeks are important and could see the highs for the year. The other alternative for a high for the year is that the market hangs on until July.

• Bonds fell sharply this past week as the treasury auction went poorly. In Canada bonds also fell as BofC governor Mark Carney mused about higher interest rates. A giant head and shoulders seen on both Canadian and US bonds is being pressured.

• Gold prices fell once again as the US$ broke out. However, given the big jump in the US$ to new highs gold did not make new lows a positive development. The commercial COT improved. A potential head and shoulders bottom is forming on gold.

• Oil prices continue to meander while natural gas prices continue the recent downtrend. Oil stocks were weak.

D.C.

A “Scoop” on the “Great Recovery”

D.C.

Updates Only

• A rough last two weeks for the portfolios.

• Despite setbacks all portfolios remain in the black.

• Some portfolios continue to outperform their benchmarks.

D.C.

This week

• Stocks make new highs but the market is in the first time frame for a potential high for the year.

• Bonds in Canada and the US went in opposite directions this past week. Canadian bonds fell due to higher inflation. US bonds rose but it wasn’t universal as the yield curve flattened. Warnings abound from the IMF and rating agencies about the level of US debt and the level of debt in the advanced economies (Canada and Germany are the exceptions).

• The US$ surged but it was really a one currency show as it was the Euro, the largest component of the US$ Index, that had the big fall. But other indicators suggest that this may only be temporary situation as the Greek situation which is driving the Euro may be temporary and the US is threatening essentially a trade war with China.

• Gold prices were steady this past week despite the jump in the US$. Other indicators continue to suggest that this is only a temporary consolidation for gold and once this is over the bull market will resume.

• Oil prices fell back this past week and natural gas gave a sell signal. The energy stocks were weak. The meandering in this sector continues.

A full technical commentary will return next week.
D.C.

As previously noted only a short form Technical Commentary is provided this week. This will also be the case for next week.

This week

• The markets continue to meander higher as the economic recovery continues although thus far it is primarily been a jobless recovery. There was an improvement in the jobs picture in Canada as Canada continues to outperform the US. But signs abate that investors should treat the current up move with caution.

• Bonds were overall weak this past week as the stronger economic numbers in Canada hurt the bond market. Only a weak consumer confidence number in the US prevented US bonds from falling (in price).

• Gold fell this past week despite weakness in the US$ which is unusual. The breakout made the previous week is, however, thus far intact but support lies are just below or a test of the lows will be underway.

• Energy prices fell late in the week following release of the consumer confidence numbers.

Update only.

• The markets continue to be quite choppy.

• The gold has stalled after appearing to break out the previous week.

We have to go up to Ottawa nexr week.. As a result there may be no Stock Picks next week. An attempt will be made to do a short version of the weekend Technical Commentary both this weekend and next.

D.C.

This week

• Stronger than expected job numbers buoyed the stock market as the S&P 500 jumped 3.1% and is approaching the January highs at 1,150. Targets are now 1,200 to 1,300 once the market makes new highs.

• The stronger than expected job numbers were good for stocks but bad for bonds as bonds once again failed at the 40 week MA and have turned down bearishly once again. Once again supply may weigh on the market with another $74 billion of notes and bonds to be auctioned.

• Gold is approaching its recent highs at $1,150 but the US$ must fall if the market is challenge the highs near $1,225. The US$ hesitated once again but the patterns show that the break could go either way. An up move in the US$ would be negative for gold. However, gold, silver and the gold stocks are all threatening to break out and if the US$ were to rise than not only would gold and the gold stocks fall but stocks in general would decline. As noted above stocks appear to be pointed higher.

• Oil prices rose but natural gas once again fell. For the energy stocks it is oil rising that is the important one and stocks had a good up week.

Today

• Update. The TSX Gold Index has given a buy signal. As a result two positions for the gold portfolio are reviewed. One is an old pick and the other new.

This week

• Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday following release of weak economic numbers but then spent the rest of the week with a feeble recovery. Key is break back above 1,120 to keep alive the potential for a positive March and a run to 1,200 or higher.

• Weak economic numbers and Greece’s problems pushed bond yields sharply lower as the record $126 billion of 2, 5 and 7 year notes went well. But bonds ran into key resistance zones again so follow through is important this week or a failure is possible.

• Gold (and gold stocks) staged a sharp outside day reversal on Thursday. This was encouraging as they may have finished a test of the recent lows (that held). Key is regaining above $1,150 and for the HUI above 420. Stocks continue very undervalued in relation to gold.

• The US$ continues to falter but has not as yet broken down. If focus shifts from the Euro problems to the problems of the US states (and municipalities) the perception of the US$ as a safe haven of late will evaporate quickly.

• Oil prices rose but faltered later in the week on the weak economic numbers. Natural gas prices were weak all week.