This week

• S&P falls slightly on the week as the frustrating small range trading continues. Key remains 1090 on the downside and 1120 on the upside although as noted false breakouts can and do occur.

• Sovereign debt concerns (Greece was downgraded) and rising oil prices (the Iranian incursion into Iraq) weighed on bonds this past week even as bond prices were largely unchanged on the week. In Canada, however, continued better than expected economic numbers weighed on the market and bond prices fell.

• A strong US$ (sovereign debt concerns, economic recovery) helped weigh on gold. Silver, however, bucked the trend and rose. Gold is now at support of $1080/$1090.

• Gold stocks remain undervalued vs. gold.

• Oil prices bucked the US$ rise and rose on concerns over the Iranian incursion into Iraq and seizure of a disputed Iraqi oil field. Noise and rhetoric continue in the Iran/US/Israel slugfest.

NOTE: This is the last Technical Commentary until 2010. Next one due on Jan 11.

Happy Holidays and Healthy and Wealthy New Year.

D.C.

• Updated information on various portfolios

This week

• S&P 500 ekes out a tiny gain. The coil tightens as 1120 resistance and 1090 support mark the points that help determine the next move.

• Market appears poised to continue a positive record for years ending in 9. However, years ending in 0 are traditionally the worst market of any decade.

• Bonds fell in price, up in yield this past week suggesting that recent strength may have been a false breakout. Stronger than expected economic numbers and a poor auction this past week pushed bond prices lower.

• Gold fell again but is approaching an area of stronger support. Despite the shakedown investors are reminded that gold and gold stocks are still up on the year.

• The US$ rallied again. Has the US$ suddenly come back in style? Not likely as the Fed remains committed to the low interest rate scenario. The Fed is therefore not likely to respond to stronger than expected economic numbers and US$ bulls will be disappointed. Note the weakness in bonds as well. None of this is ultimately friendly for the US$.

• Oil prices fell again and here the weakness continues. However, they too are approaching areas of good support.

• StockPicks update. It was an unpleasant week for the markets and the portfolios.

This week

• Market up but failure to break through 1120 50% retracement level of the entire financial meltdown 2007-2009 is a continuing negative. A break under 1190 and especially under 1180 could start a waterfall corrective decline.

• Bonds reversed the previous week’s gains particularly following the release of the non-farm payrolls and unemployment numbers on Friday. This failure is a negative for bonds and the risk shifts to rising yields (falling prices).

• Despite signs of a recovering economy the recovery remains feeble. It has been fuelled by unprecedented levels of liquidity and the exceptionally low interest rates.

• Despite positive economic signs the middle and lower classes are struggling to prevent losing their homes and falling into bankruptcy. Some interesting numbers are noted.

• Gold reversed and fell sharply following the release of Friday’s employment numbers. This is a “knee-jerk” reaction as the conditions for the US$ (that jumped sharply) remain very negative. Another correction could follow. Support below $1150 is at $1090.

• The gold stock indices had an outside reversal week after approaching all-time highs. However, gold and silver did not have outside reversal weeks.

• Oil rolled over and Natural Gas sold off sharply. The sector continues to look weak and may be in for further corrective action.

• StockPicks update. Another stellar week for the gold and junior exploration portfolios. A couple of new penny picks.