This week

• The Dubai meltdown roiled all markets this past week as stock markets fell, commodities fell and bonds rallied in a flight to safety.

• The S&P 500 may be starting a correction that could fall to 1000 or 950 by mid-December. After that a rally could carry the market to new highs to targets of 1200/1300 by March 2010.

• Bonds rallied on a flight to safety following the Dubai meltdown. This was offsetting stronger economic numbers.

• Gold and silver fell following the Dubai meltdown as the US$ rallied in a flight to safety. Gold in particular, however, finished the day well off its lows. As well gold stayed in the black for the week. Seasonal strength in the US$ may be offset by seasonal strength in gold.

• Oil prices fell again because of the Dubai effect but natural gas prices rose. Falling oil prices are holding support at $75 but a risk of a decline to at least $70 is possible. NG prices continue to show strength despite high storage. Next targets are up to $6. Energy stocks fell on the week with the broad market.

• StockPicks updated. There are no new picks this week. Reason – market once again appears to be in possible transition for a down move.

• The Gold and junior exploration portfolios are largely invested so no further recommendations there at the moment.

This Week

• S&P 500 falls on weakening outlook for technology.

• Traditionally the period following Thanksgiving gives rise to a stronger market culminating in the Santa Claus rally. Weak retail sales would put a dent into that thought.

• US Treasury bonds rose as there was a flight out of equities in the latter part of the week (profit taking?) and a flight to safety of bonds.

• Cdn bonds also rose and may be on the verge of a buy signal.

• Gold set another record and silver confirmed with new highs but a seasonal strength in the US$ may put a temporary damper on golds ascendant. Still it will be temporary and Gold is entering a period of seasonal strength that stretches into January and even February.

• Energy was weak this past week. Oil prices are clinging to support. Energy stocks are rolling over with the broad market.

StockPicks update.Two junior exploration picks are up over 100%.

• Are we in the process of making a top of some significance? Some cycles suggest it is possible. However, it may also just be a temporary top with a drop into December then a rise again into the first quarter of March 2010 before we see our final top.

• Internal indicators are pointing to a topping market.

• Bonds are at crossroads and patterns are indicating either a downside break or an upside breakout. (Yields rise or yields fall).

• Gold again at new highs but silver has not as yet confirmed. But the gold indices also made new highs. This is a positive development.

• Oil and gas prices fell. The energy stocks are barely clinging on. But we are support levels. A further break of course would be bearish near term.

This Week

• Stocks rise despite the poor employment numbers. Warren Buffet has more cachet then people losing their jobs.
• Bonds fall on continued supply concerns (another large auction this coming week). But the FOMC leaves rates unchanged and the weak job numbers push down two year rates.
• Gold broke out to record highs as the Bank of India absorbs the IMF gold a bullish development.
• The US$ falls again failing at resistance and driven down by the weak economic numbers and the FOMC decision.
• Oil prices rise but the rise was muted. We appear to have run into resistance. Natural gas prices fall and we may be due for a correction back towards $4.

S&P 500 STRATEGY: LONG HOLD

• The S&P 500 jumped 3.2% this past week following the previous week’s sharp decline.
• The rise brought us back to 20 day MA resistance at 1070.
• Above 1085 new highs are possible.
• We were anticipating a bounce back this week following the previous week’s sharp decline.Unexpected, however, was the positive reaction to the jobs numbers of a loss of 190,000 jobs for nonfarmpayroll and a jump in the unemployment rate to 10.2%.

[ read more .. ]

NASDAQ STRATEGY: LONG HOLD

• After falling over 5% the previous week the NASDAQ rose 3.3% this past week.
• It has brought us back to the 20 day MA and near the breakdown zone.
• Resistance is here at 2100 and further resistance can be seen up to 2170.
• Only above 2170 would we be in a position to go to new highs.

[ read more .. ]

Updated StockPicks. Good gains especially for the gold and exploration portfolios.

All the portfolios gained on the week with the biggest gains coming in the Gold portfolio and the speculative exploration portfolio. Our income trust portfolio had a small gain but remains down since its inception on Oct 23, 2009. The other portfolios were started on Aug 17, 2009.

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This week

• Markets fall sharply with the S&P 500 losing 4%.
• The old “buy when it snows, sell when it goes” seems all mixed up.
• Wave counts suggest that this drop is a correction to the up move from the March 2009 lows.
• Nonetheless we could see a drop anywhere from 950 to 900 on the S&P 500 .
• Bond prices rose on the perception that the economy is weakening again and the sharp 3.5% GDP advance in the 3rd quarter is unsustainable. Watch the FOMC this week.
• Gold prices fell as the US$ rose. Support lies below although there is a risk for a drop to $975. The stocks were particularly hard hit but are now down at support zones and a rebound could develop at any time. The move downwards appears corrective.
• Oil prices also fell as the US$ rose but Natural Gas prices rose again despite record holdings in storage. Energy stocks fell but are near support.