• S&P 500 made a new high then reversed and closed lower. We are seeing a rollover pattern in play and may finally be poised for our long awaited correction. But overall the fact that we held up so long and well tells us that another phase in this correction to the financial collapse of 2008 should occur once this correction is out of the way.
• Bonds continue to be weighed down by supply concerns. This coming week a record $123 billion will be issued.
• Mark Carney talked the Cdn$ down this week but its impact should be short lived.
• Gold rose on the week but the stocks sold off with the general market. The bull is intact and should remain intact but we may have some more consolidation to do over the next couple of weeks.
• Oil prices are through $80 but a test back towards $75 cannot be ruled out. Natural Gas prices are holding its break away gap for now anyway.
• Oil stocks also sold off this past week despite the rise in oil and gas prices. A slightly negative sign.

D.C.
www.davidchapman.com

• US stock markets continue their rise. S&P 500 approaching the 50% retracement level of the entire 2007-2008 collapse.
• We remain in a period where the stock markets could suddenly collapse down.
• If a collapse were to occur technical patterns suggest a test of a possible head & shoulders breakout line near 920. Targets on the head & shoulders are ultimately up to around 1280 and the 4 year MA.
• Bonds steadied this past week following the big price drop of the previous week.
• Gold steadied as well suggesting a consolidation following the breakout of $1000. Ultimate targets remain up to $1300/$1400 and we remain in a seasonally strong period for gold and precious metals and the stocks.
• Oil prices broke out this past week and the oil and gas stocks also broke out.
• The US$ closed at its weakest levels since August 2008. The bear channel is down to 72 and major resistance is seen at 78. There is little on the horizon to encourage US$ bulls except the US$ is oversold right now.

D.C.
www.davidchapman.com

Today Gold broke out to new all time highs.  We are closing at new all time highs. This should be very positive going forward.

However, we do wish to note the following.

Silver has not as yet made new highs.
The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) has not as yet made new highs nor has it made new highs for the current move up.
The TSX Gold Index has not as yet made new highs.
Platinum has not as yet made new highs and remains well off its all time highs.

These are potential divergences.

Until we make new highs for at least Silver, the HUI and the TSX Gold Index and we can hold above $1030-$1035 for the rest of the week (and with luck add to today`s gains) then we will be quite encouraged. It will also be interesting to see the commercial COT release this week (not out until Friday afternoon).

Hopefully we are on our way to potential targets up to $1300 but keep a perspective.

30 years ago Gold made a high at $441 this very week. Then it backed off until very early November hitting lows near $367. After that it doubled to $850 in the space of three months. So there still could be some hooks here.

D.C.

This week

• S&P 500 falls for the second week in a row.
• The recent short squeeze is similar to patterns that were seen in both 1978 and 1979. These culminated in October massacres.
• There appears to be 30 year harmonics at play. These harmonics indicate unexpected invasions, Iran, commodity mania, influenza, bankruptcies, and Ponzi schemes.
• Bonds rose due to weak economic numbers. But ongoing supply concerns should weigh on bonds eventually.
• Gold and silver held up despite a small rise in the US$ Index. But the precious metals stocks fell in sympathy with the broader market. Overall the Gold market remains in a secular bull market and there is an ongoing fight here at $1000 which should be won by the bulls. There was some improvement in the bearish commercial COT.
• Oil and gas prices rose (especially gas that broke out a several months basing pattern) but the oil and gas stocks fell in sympathy with the market.

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