TSX INDICES

The S&P/TSX Composite was up 1.2% on the week, the seventh consecutive weekly rise. We confess we were surprised. But it was largely thanks to one sector. The TSX Gold Index was up a sharp 12.2% on the week. The remaining sub indices saw either small gains or small losses. Six indices were down on the week – Energy, Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Staples, Healthcare and Utilities.  [read more...]

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• Stock Markets rise for the 7th consecutive week (although the S&P 500 was down slightly).
• IT was a remarkable recovery following the sharp selloff seen last Monday as bank woes came back to the forefront.
• Bonds continued their recent decline and with new lows for the move down are looking increasing dangerous. Investors should be out of long bonds and moved to the front end of the yield curve.
• Gold broke out over $900 and the Chinese are over 1000 tonnes in their official gold holdings. Demand remains high in India and the Mid East.
• Gold stocks had a strong up week and are targeting higher the HUI to 400+.
• Oil prices improved but natural gas prices fell to new multi year lows. The energy stocks still look positive but if we had to choose we be in gold stocks over energy stocks. Energy trusts are exception especially when one is looking for yield and a number look positive.

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TSX INDICES

The TSX Composite gained 2.7% this past week. We are now 6 weeks up from the lows having gained 24% off the low close. Financials led the way with a 7.9% gain followed by Metals & Mining up 6.3%. Only two sectors were down on the week Golds and Materials. Golds fell 7/5%. It is unusual to say the least that Golds would fall while Metals & … [read more...]

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• Markets up for the 6th consecutive week sets up the possibility of a down week this coming week.
• If the rally that got underway in March is to stay intact we must make only a shallow correction bottoming in May preferably before resuming the uptrend into the summer.
• Gold/Silver and the PM stocks are weak but we could be poised for a rebound even if the US$ which has shown some strength were to resume its uptrend.
• Bonds have started falling in price again (rising in yield) at odds with the ongoing attempts to lower interest rates and quantitative easing.
• Natural gas prices made new lows but closed higher. A bottom maybe? Still oil and gas stocks remain good.

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S&P 500

Short term trend – up.
Intermediate trend – down.
Week – up

The S&P 500 has run into a major band of resistance from 850 to 860. A close over 860 this week will confirm to us that we will be heading to 900 and keep our longer term targets near 1000/1100 intact. This is though a sucker rally and not the beginning of a new bull market. What we don’t know from our Technical Scoop April 9 Sucker Rally! is whether it is just a big sucker (which it already is) or will it turn into a really big … [ read more... ]

US$ Bonds

Short term trend – down.
Intermediate trend – has turned neutral.
Week – down.

Bonds cannot seem to get anything going. The ten year bond yield rose to 2.96% from 2.91%. Two year notes were steady at .96%. Still despite the down move bonds remain in a consolidation pattern that has major support just below where we closed at 125^00. A break under that level would be a breakdown in what appears as a consolidation symmetrical triangle. Only a breakout above … [ read more... ]

Cdn$ Bonds

Short term trend – down
Intermediate trend – up
Week – down

Canadian bonds continue to trade in what appears as a huge topping pattern. Right now we are resting near support of 125 and a break of 124.50 would confirm a major breakdown with possible targets down to at least 121. There appears to be a large head & shoulders pattern forming. Only breaking above 127 would send this market to potentially new highs or at least a further test of the highs and a …. [ read more... ]

Gold and Silver

Short term trend – down for both
Intermediate trend – neutral for both
Week – down for both.

Gold and silver continue their near term correction. We moved down sharply earlier in the week but found support at around $865 which was equivalent to the late January topside. A break below will est further support at $850 but under $850 a move to $800 would be in the works and it would turn the intermediate trend… [ read more... ]

Gold Stocks (HUI, TSX Gold Index)

Short term trend – HUI down (barely), TSX Gold down.
Intermediate trend – HUI neutral, TSX Gold up
Week – down

Gold stocks turned down this week but the HUI remains above key weekly support at 255/265 and the TSX Gold Index is also above key weekly support near 275/285. Resistance now for the HUI is at 310 and also for the TSX Gold index at 310. Regaining these levels would be positive. The HUI above 330 would turn very positive again as would the TSX Gold index … [ read more... ]

US$ Index

Short term trend – down
Intermediate trend – up
Week – up

The US$ index reversed back up this past week keeping us in a guessing mode as to which direction we are going in. The past three weeks has seen up, down, up. We haven’t ruled out the possibility of a triple rising top. We have seen that pattern numerous times before so it can’t be ruled out. Major support is at 83 and resistance is at … [ read more... ]

Oil and Gas

Short term trend – up oil, NG down
Intermediate trend – neutral oil, NG down
Week – oil up, NG down

Oil prices continued their recent rebound but NG prices can’t get going for the life of them. Indeed NG prices made new lows and the down trend remains as intact as ever. The only good news is that the weekly MACD has actually turned up and this positive belies the continuing downtrend. Next support for NG is at $3.50. NG prices are at the lowest … [ read more... ]

Oil and Gas stocks (XOI and TSX Energy Index)

Short term trend – up
Intermediate trend – XOI down, TSX Energy Index neutral
Week – XOI down, TSX Energy Index up.

The XOI and the TSX Energy Index both went in opposite directions this past week. The XOI is just below resistance at 900 and must break above 1000 to project up to 1200/1300. The TSX Energy Index broke and closed above 230 resistance this past week and appears headed higher. Targets could be up to between 300 and 350. Indicators are pointed … [ read more... ]

SUCKER RALLY!

Sucker rallies (or bull traps) in a bear market are a time-honoured tradition. Bear markets see many rebounds, ranging from feeble rises of maybe 10 per cent over a period of a couple of weeks to ones that last years and recoup anywhere from 50 per cent to even over 100 per cent from the low. Call it from the little sucker to the really big sucker. Little suckers bring a wave of short-term euphoria that “This is the end of the bear,” while really big suckers make everyone forget about the previous drop, and then just when they believe…[ read more... ]

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• A history of sucker rallies in the big bears of the century.
• Failed suckers, mini suckers, big suckers, really big suckers.
• So which is this one?

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S&P 500 STRATEGY: STAND ASIDE (for definitions of terms see end of report)

• The S&P 500 enjoyed the 4th consecutive up week rising 3.25%.
• We did, however, close at resistance of the 13 week MA at 842. We are also closed just slightly above the 100 day MA another resistance point.
• If the resistance points are correct then this week could see a pull back.
• Key support zone is at800 and below 775 we could start a… [read more...]

TSX INDICES

We are now four weeks up from the low seen on March 6. Gains to date have been 19.5% off the low close. The November/January rebound was one of 22.6% so we are getting close to equaling that one. We note though this time around the lows were only marginally below the November lows setting up the possibility of a double bottom pattern. We have broken through what may be neckline; however, we note that it has not been with any … [ read more... ]

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• The rebound rally continues although we are at a resistance zone that could see a temporary setback.
• Gold reacted negatively to the announcement of IMF gold sales but we note that only gold and silver fell of the metals and other commodities this past week. Platinum and copper in particular rose on the week. The US Dollar fell sharply on the week reversing the sharp up week of the prior week.
• Despite efforts from foreign purchases of US securities and quantitative easing US bonds fell sharply again this week.
• Unemployment keeps rising with another 600 thousand plus job loss in the US and unemployment jumping to 8.5%.
• Oil prices resumed their upward trend and energy stocks appear to be breaking out.

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